Used Truck Prices Are Turning And Your Coverage Value Is Not
Ryder chief executive John Diez told analysts that used truck and tractor prices should climb at least 10 percent in 2027. Physical damage insurance pays against a value you set yourself, so a number chosen two renewals ago decides what a total loss actually hands you.
Ryder says used truck prices are about to turn
Ryder chief executive John Diez told analysts that used truck and tractor prices should rise at least 10 percent year over year in 2027. Transport Topics reported the comments on August 20, 2026, in a piece by staff reporter Keiron Greenhalgh. Diez put this year's increase at roughly 5 percent, and in the second quarter Ryder saw used tractor prices up 6 percent year over year with truck prices up 3 percent. He called it "the early innings of a recovery of used vehicle sales."
That is a forecast, not a fact, and today's data does not agree with it yet. J.D. Power figures cited in the same report had the average used Class 8 retail price down 3.4 percent from June to July and down 6.2 percent from a year earlier. Ryder itself moved 18 percent fewer used vehicles in the second quarter than a year before, 5,100 units against 6,200, though that was up almost 11 percent from the first quarter. So the market is soft right now and the people who move the most iron think the floor is already behind us.
The new truck side is what pushes used values up
Diez also expects new truck prices to climb high single digits to low double digits because of the 2027 emissions rules. Per that same Transport Topics report, some manufacturers have floated increases near $20,000 per unit, cut to roughly $10,000 where extended warranty terms come with it, against an EPA estimate of up to $6,000 per vehicle in emissions related warranty savings. Whatever the final number turns out to be, it lands in one place. When a new tractor costs twenty grand more, more owner-operators shop used instead, and used values follow the demand.
Physical damage pays on a number you picked
Here is where this stops being market commentary and starts being your problem. Your physical damage coverage pays against a value that you and your agent wrote onto the policy, either a stated or agreed amount or actual cash value at the time of loss. Set that number during a soft market, then watch the replacement market firm up 10 or 15 percent, and a total loss check buys you less truck than the one you just lost. Nobody mails you a notice when that gap opens. You find out at the claim, which is the worst possible time to find out.
The reverse is worth saying just as plainly. Carrying a stated value well above what your truck is genuinely worth does not pay you more after a wreck. It only costs you premium you will never see again. The goal is an accurate number reviewed every year, not the biggest number you can talk an underwriter into.
The loan payoff is the part that really hurts
If the truck is financed, your lender is owed the full remaining balance no matter what the truck appraises at. When values are soft, the payoff can sit above the settlement, and you end up writing a check on a truck you no longer own. That is the exact gap that gap coverage exists to close, and it is a much better conversation to have before a loss than after one. If your lender sits on the policy as loss payee, confirm the value on file still matches the paper it signed.
What to do before your next renewal
Pull your declarations page and read the physical damage line out loud. Compare that value to what your year, make, model and mileage is actually bringing at auction and at retail this month. If the truck is worth more than the policy says, fix it now while it is a phone call instead of a dispute. If it is worth noticeably less, you may be paying for coverage you could never collect. Repair costs ride the same market, so parts and labor inflation on a firming used market feeds straight into rates, which is one more reason what commercial truck insurance costs keeps drifting upward. While the file is open, look at your commercial auto liability limit too, because a newer and more valuable truck tends to mean a heavier claim on every line of the policy.
Get a truck insurance quote in under a minute and we will size the physical damage value against what your truck is really worth today, not what it was worth two renewals ago. Start on our quote form or call or text 423-264-4255 and we will read the declarations page with you line by line.
Common questions
Do used truck values change my truck insurance premium
Yes, on the physical damage side. That premium is priced off the insured value of the unit, so a higher stated value costs more and a lower one costs less. Rising used values also lift repair and parts costs, which pushes physical damage rates for everybody regardless of what your own truck is insured for.
What is the difference between stated value and actual cash value
Stated or agreed value is a number written onto the policy up front. Actual cash value is what the truck is worth on the day of the loss, decided after the fact using market data. Stated value gives you certainty, actual cash value follows the market, and in a rising used market that difference can be thousands of dollars. Call or text 423-264-4255 and we will tell you which one your policy is using.
Should I raise my physical damage value because used prices may rise in 2027
Raise it to match reality, not to match a forecast. Check what your exact truck is selling for now, set the value there, and revisit it at every renewal. Get a truck insurance quote and we will run that comparison with you rather than guessing at a number.
Does insurance cover what I still owe on a totaled truck
Not automatically. A standard physical damage settlement pays the insured value of the truck, and if your loan balance is higher than that you owe the difference. Gap coverage is what closes that shortfall, and it has to be on the policy before the loss to do you any good.
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